比利时输入中国牛精液携带的施马伦贝格病毒潜在入侵风险评估

doi:10.11843/j.issn.0366-6964.2017.06.016

Abstract

Abstract:

To explore the current risk of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) derived from the importation of bovine semen from Belgium bovine population, within the risk assessment framework of Office International Des Epizooties (OIE), Bayesian inference were applied, and quantitative risk analysis for the assumed batches volume of importation of bovine semen were conducted. Results showed that SBV existed within the bovine population of Belgium, integrated with the parameter modeling on applied diagnostic method and released assessment based on priori surveillance information, posteriori prevalance of positive predict value for donor animals were distributed less than 0.001 9 likelihood with more than 66.886 6% probability. Based on the volume of annually bovine semen importation at 2011 from Belgium to China, The posterior probability modeling for at least one batch consignment semen of false negative detected at port entry were distributed between 0.001 to 0.006 (82.16% CI), which means that there could have 6 batches false negative consignment detected at 86.36% upper limit confidence at port entry if randomly choosing 1 000 batches semen consignment imported from Belgium, while the probability of getting more than 6 batches of false negative consignment were statistically less than 13.63% probability, getting at least one false negative consignment were larger than 95.80%. Given the derived risk, assessment showed that importation of Belgium bovine semen could give a considerable impact on China animal husbandry.

CLC Number:

S851.3

ZHANG Zhi-cheng, LI Ji-dong, SUN Ming-jun, MA Shan-shan, GE Sheng-qiang, WU Xiao-dong, WANG Zhi-liang. Bayesian Inference on the Introduced Schmallenberg Virus (SBV) Risk Derived from Importation of Belgium Bovine Semen[J]. ACTA VETERINARIA ET ZOOTECHNICA SINICA, 2017, 48(6): 1110-1117.

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Bayesian Inference on the Introduced Schmallenberg Virus (SBV) Risk Derived from Importation of Belgium Bovine Semen

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